This section contains things I think will happen in the future, mostly either economic or political. By documenting these predictions, I test them. I promise not to modify or delete any prediction that I make.
I’ve started to divide this into specific predictions vs. more general ones. The specific predictions are more measurable and technical in nature, and I have higher confidence that they will be precisely true. The more general ones try to cover broader areas.
For each prediction, I specify both my confidence level and when to test it.
Many of these are not very profound, but the ones that are the least profound are often the most controversial.
These are organized by category.
Economic Predictions (focused on 2008).
